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Tag: | Nigerian Economy

  • Tinubu Presents 2026 Budget, Projects ₦34.33tr Revenue, ₦58.18tr Spending

    Tinubu Presents 2026 Budget, Projects ₦34.33tr Revenue, ₦58.18tr Spending

    By Caroline Ameh

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Friday presented the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint sitting of the National Assembly, pledging stricter discipline in budget execution, stronger accountability and enhanced monitoring of public spending in the new fiscal year.

    The budget, titled “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” seeks to entrench recent economic reforms, stabilise macroeconomic conditions and convert recovery gains into sustained, inclusive growth.

    Addressing lawmakers, the President said he had directed key fiscal authorities—including the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, the Accountant-General of the Federation and the Director-General of the Budget Office—to enforce strict adherence to the approved budget framework and implementation timelines.

    “2026 will mark a turning point in budget execution. We will demand accountability, rigorous monitoring and reporting that translate policy into measurable outcomes for Nigerians,” Tinubu said.

    The President said the budget was formulated against a backdrop of emerging macroeconomic stability, following what he described as difficult but necessary policy adjustments implemented by his administration.

    He reported that Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, up from 3.86 per cent in the corresponding period of 2024, while inflation declined for eight consecutive months to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, from 24.23 per cent in March.

    Tinubu further cited improved crude oil output, stronger non-oil revenue mobilisation driven by tax administration reforms, rising investor confidence and external reserves estimated at $47 billion, sufficient to cover more than 10 months of imports.

    “These results reflect deliberate policy choices. The task before us is to consolidate these gains so that stability evolves into prosperity and prosperity is broadly shared,” he said.

    Reviewing the performance of the 2025 budget, the President said the government realised ₦18.6 trillion in revenue and ₦24.66 trillion in expenditure by the third quarter, representing 61 per cent and 60 per cent of their respective annual targets.

    He attributed delays in capital releases partly to the extension of the 2024 capital budget into 2025, noting that the experience highlighted the need for firmer fiscal discipline in the 2026 budget cycle.

    For 2026, the President projected total revenue of ₦34.33 trillion and total expenditure of ₦58.18 trillion, including ₦15.52 trillion earmarked for debt servicing.

    Recurrent non-debt expenditure is estimated at ₦15.25 trillion, while capital expenditure is projected at ₦26.08 trillion. The resulting budget deficit of ₦23.85 trillion, he said, represents 4.28 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

    Underlying the projections are assumptions of a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the US dollar.

    The budget prioritises national security, infrastructure development and human capital investment, with proposed allocations of ₦5.41 trillion for defence and security, ₦3.56 trillion for infrastructure, ₦3.52 trillion for education and ₦2.48 trillion for health.

    Tinubu said security spending would be outcome-based, aligned with the implementation of a new national counter-terrorism doctrine and expanded intelligence-led operations.

    On education, he referenced the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, which has supported more than 418,000 students across 229 tertiary institutions, while noting that healthcare expenditure represents six per cent of total budgetary spending, net of liabilities.

    The President warned government-owned enterprises to meet their revenue remittance obligations, announcing plans to deploy digitised revenue collection systems to curb leakages and strengthen fiscal transparency.

    “A budget’s true value lies not in its announcement, but in its execution,” Tinubu said, pledging prudent expenditure management, enhanced revenue mobilisation and tighter oversight.

    He urged the National Assembly to support the proposals, expressing confidence that effective executive-legislative collaboration would ensure successful implementation.

    The President subsequently laid the 2026 Appropriation Bill before the National Assembly for legislative consideration.

  • Fact Over Assumption: NNPC’s New Drive for Openness and Reform

    Fact Over Assumption: NNPC’s New Drive for Openness and Reform

    By Enam Obioso

    For years, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd)  lived at the intersection of perception and reality, its reputation shaped as much by public sentiment as by its internal dynamics. That tension lingered in the air on Monday evening when Mr. Andy Odeh, Chief Corporate Communications Officer, addressed a select audience of journalists and industry experts in what he described as a long-overdue engagement, one designed to confront a problem that has followed the national oil company for decades: assumptions.

    ‘Reducing the Quantity and Quality of Assumptions’

    Odeh spoke with the candor of someone who knows the industry’s sensitivities from within. Drawing on his two and a half decades at Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), he admitted that he too once shared many of the misconceptions about NNPC, until firsthand experience revealed the complexity behind its operations.

    “Any opportunities we have to reduce the quantity and quality of assumptions are important,” he said.
    The event, he explained, stemmed from an internal reflection two weeks earlier as the company prepared to release its 2024 audited financials. The goal was to open the books and the thinking behind them to a small circle of informed professionals. “For those who know the sector, you are actually the first advocates,” he told the room.

    Representing the Group Chief Executive Officer, Odeh emphasized that the session was not about defending NNPC, but about building a fact-based dialogue that narrows the gap between perception and reality.

    Numbers That Tell a Story

    The numbers unveiled that evening were striking:

    • Revenue: ₦45.1 trillion
    • Profit After Tax: ₦5.4 trillion
    • Revenue Growth: 88% year-on-year
    • Profit Growth: 64%
    • Earnings per Share: ₦27.07

    In a year marked by market volatility, exchange rate instability, and inflationary pressure, the results pointed to a resilient organization executing with steadiness and discipline.

    But beyond the celebration of figures, the night invited scrutiny, a conversation between facts and perspectives.

    The Professors Weigh In

    The first to speak was a Professor Emeritus, Wunmi Iledare who urged the company to focus more on cost efficiency. “Price is market-determined and volume is geological. Cost is the only lever NNPC can truly control,” he said.
    He likened Nigeria’s relationship with NNPC to a football field where “every citizen feels like a petroleum expert,” a sentiment he said often fuels misunderstanding.

    He also cautioned against expecting perfect outcomes overnight, given the company’s ongoing transition under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021. What matters, he said, is measurable progress, and on that score, NNPC had indeed advanced in six key areas.

    Next came Professor Uche Uwaleke, a former state Commissioner of Finance and member of the FAAC Post-Mortem Committee. He recalled years when FAAC meetings stalled over NNPC’s reports. “This year is different,” he noted, pointing to PwC’s unqualified audit opinion and a profit increase from ₦3.3 trillion to ₦5.4 trillion.

    He credited the performance to improved crude volumes, cost optimization, and stronger procurement processes. “This is a full year we can compare. This is an improvement,” he said, though he added that the company’s ambitious targets must be examined carefully.

    The Questions That Remain

    Uwaleke’s remarks cut to the heart of future expectations:
    Can NNPC truly achieve 2 million barrels per day by 2026, and 3 million barrels per day by 2030?
    Can gas production expand to 10–12 billion cubic feet per day within that timeframe?
    And how soon will the refineries and the $60 billion investment pipeline become reality?

    The questions were not confrontational but constructive, mirroring the company’s own acknowledgment that transparency is an ongoing process, not a one-time declaration.

    A Company in Transition

    NNPC’s 2024 strategy reflects its broader ambition:

    • Increased upstream production
    • Expanded gas infrastructure
    • Continued capital expenditure (₦8.9 trillion for the year)
    • Reduced routine flaring
    • Growth in crude and LNG trading volumes

    The session ended as it began, with candor and curiosity. For NNPC, it was an invitation to let experts and the public judge its progress through evidence rather than rumor. For the experts, it was an opportunity to test the company’s story against reality.

    What emerged was not a debate over perfection, but a measured conversation about progress, accountability, and the long path ahead for Nigeria’s most consequential energy enterprise.