Deleterious Effects on President Tinubu’s 2027 Presidential Election Prospects and the Unwitting Drift of Zone C to the ADC
By Chris Echikwu
The deepening political marginalisation of Benue State’s Zone C has evolved from a long-standing grievance into a full-scale electoral threat with direct implications for President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid. Nearly five decades after Benue State was created, the Idoma and Igede peoples of Benue South remain completely excluded from the state’s highest executive and legislative offices, an imbalance now fuelling an organised political realignment toward the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Political analysts warn that unless urgently addressed, this exclusion could trigger the collapse of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) structure across Benue South’s nine local government areas, with devastating consequences for Tinubu’s presidential vote tally in a state he cannot afford to lose.
A Historical Exclusion Hardened Into Policy
Benue State is divided into three senatorial districts: Zones A and B, dominated by Tiv-speaking communities, and Zone C, Benue South, home primarily to the Idoma and Igede peoples. Since the state’s creation in 1976, every governor and every Speaker of the Benue State House of Assembly has come from Zones A or B.
Traditionally, political balance was loosely maintained through the allocation of deputy positions and the powerful Secretary to the State Government (SSG) slot to Zone C. That convention began to unravel during the second term of former governor Samuel Ortom, when an Idoma SSG was replaced by a Tiv appointee. The current administration under Governor Hyacinth Alia has not only retained this structure but reinforced it.
To political leaders in Zone C, the message is unmistakable: exclusion is no longer incidental, it is systemic.
2023: Votes Delivered, Exclusion Returned
The sense of betrayal peaked after the 2023 governorship election. Electoral data and party intelligence indicate that APC’s performance in Benue was significantly bolstered by turnout and bloc voting from Zone C. Yet, unlike previous electoral cycles, no substantive concessions followed, not even symbolic gestures.
The SSG position remained outside Zone C, key appointments bypassed the zone, and no credible zoning discussion for the 2027 governorship emerged. For many Idoma political actors, this marked the end of goodwill politics.
Why Zone C Is Drifting to the ADC
The political vacuum created by APC’s internal crisis has been swiftly occupied by the ADC, which is increasingly viewed in Benue South as a viable platform for both protest and power.
The ADC’s growing influence is underpinned by heavyweight political figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Benue governor Gabriel Suswam, and former Senate President David Mark. Their combined networks give the ADC instant organisational depth across the North-Central region.
Suswam’s deep understanding of Benue’s internal political fault lines, particularly the Zone C grievance, has made him a highly effective bridge between the ADC and disaffected APC stakeholders. For many in Zone C, the ADC now represents not just opposition, but recognition.
APC in Benue South: An Implosion in Plain Sight
The crisis within the APC has spilled into the open. A coalition of APC stakeholders from Benue South has publicly accused the state party chairman and traditional authorities of imposing candidates and appointments, undermining party legitimacy at the grassroots.
More alarming for the Tinubu campaign is the structural consequence: once the party’s ward and local government machinery collapses, presidential votes cannot be mobilised. In Nigeria’s electoral system, governorship and presidential campaigns rely on the same local structures. A broken APC in Zone C for the governorship race is automatically a broken APC for Tinubu’s presidential campaign.
Benue: A State Tinubu Cannot Lose
Benue State is not electorally optional for Tinubu. It was one of only six northern states he carried in the 2023 presidential election. The North-Central zone has been identified by APC strategists as decisive terrain for 2027, with ambitious targets of securing up to 90 per cent of regional votes.
Zone C’s nine local government areas represent a substantial share of Benue’s voter population. Even partial defection or organised voter apathy in the zone could flip the state, and with it, undermine Tinubu’s broader North-Central strategy.
The demolition of Tinubu’s campaign office in Makurdi shortly after its commissioning has only reinforced perceptions of institutional dysfunction and hostility within the APC’s Benue structure.
A Regional Grievance With National Implications
Zone C’s alienation resonates beyond Benue. It feeds into a wider North-Central narrative of marginalisation, insecurity, and political disposability—sentiments the ADC is actively consolidating into a regional movement.
David Mark’s stature on security issues, combined with Suswam’s organisational reach, gives the ADC a compelling alternative message in communities battered by herder-farmer violence and state neglect. For many voters, the choice is no longer ideological but existential.
What Tinubu Must Do—And Fast
Political observers agree that cosmetic interventions will not suffice. To arrest the drift, decisive national-level action is required:
- Direct Presidential Engagement: A public, personal intervention by President Tinubu with Zone C leaders would signal seriousness and reset trust.
- Substantive Federal Appointments: High-impact federal positions for respected Idoma and Igede figures would demonstrate inclusion beyond rhetoric.
- A Binding 2027 Zoning Commitment: Without a credible guarantee of the Benue governorship ticket for Zone C, all other concessions will be dismissed as tactical.
- Resolution of APC’s Internal Crisis: Allegations of imposition and manipulation within the party must be addressed through credible mediation.
Conclusion
The marginalisation of Benue Zone C is no longer a local grievance, it is a strategic vulnerability with national consequences. Left unresolved, it threatens to dismantle APC’s grassroots machinery in Benue, flip a critical state, and weaken President Tinubu’s standing across the North-Central region.
The ADC’s advance into Zone C is structured, deliberate, and increasingly irreversible. The window for intervention is closing.
Unless decisive action is taken, Benue State may well become the first domino in a chain reaction that imperils Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid.
Chris Echikwu is a public affairs analyst.
