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Tag: Nigeria economy

  • Rising Oil Prices Good For FG, Bad For Nigerians, Says Rewane

    Goldman Sachs has predicted oil price will likely rise to $100 again, citing lower production output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), amongst others.

    Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) Limited, Bismarck Rewane, says it will only increase revenue to governments but will not benefit Nigerians.

    “Globally, oil prices trade at $95/b and are projected to hit $100/b by year-end due to supply shortages. While government revenue, Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) could increase in naira terms, Nigeria’s reliance on imported energy products (LPG, diesel, petrol and kerosene) amid a falling naira means higher food and transport costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures”, said Rewane in a statement Sunday.

    He said, these will be major considerations for the MPC at its next meeting, whenever that will be. Nonetheless, we expect the MPC to remain hawkish.

    Rewane in its FDC Prism Sunday however said, some form of looking inward could solve Nigeria’s economic woes.

    “Viable options would be improving the value addition of top agricultural traded products like cashew and cocoa, as well as mineral resources like steel. More importantly, Nigeria needs to show its political will, improve access, and encourage local businesses, particularly SMEs, to participate in the AfCFTA by removing non-tariff barriers, he said.

    Also meanwhile, oil and gas companies keep reporting meaty profits and investors are rediscovering their love of hydrocarbons.

    At the recent World Petroleum Congress (WPC) in Calgary, oil executives and government officials both warned against the continued push to discourage investment in new hydrocarbon production.

    “There seems to be wishful thinking that we’re going to flip a switch from where we’re at today to where it will be tomorrow,” Exxon’s chief executive said during the event.

    “No matter where demand gets to, if we don’t maintain some level of investment industry, you end up running shorter supply which leads to higher prices,” Darren Woods also said.

    This is exactly what we are currently witnessing in Europe and the United States. Because of the transition push, oil producers are being extra cautious with production growth. Also, they are prioritizing shareholder returns to keep shareholders on, so it pays for them to be cautious.

    In Europe, the supermajors are being squeezed by windfall profit taxes, activist pressure, and increasingly restrictive legislation, so they are turning elsewhere.

    Shell is tapping billions of potential barrels in Namibia, and Total is considering a $9billion commitment to oil exploration in Suriname.

    Meanwhile, Nigeria’s oil output could increase to 2.1 million barrels per day by December 2024 after the country secured $13.5 billion in investment pledges over the next twelve months from oil majors.

    The companies agreed to invest a total of $55.2 billion by 2030 – including the $13.5 billion over the next twelve months – to lift crude production, according to a statement from the president’s office.
    Nigeria’s oil output stood at 1.18 million bpd in August 2023, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), meaning production would nearly double by the end of next year.

    Nigeria is the top oil producer in Africa but large-scale oil theft has over the years cost the country billions of dollars, while dwindling investment in the sector has also curtailed output.
    The losses from theft and a lack of new projects have reduced oil exports sharply, eroding foreign currency earnings in Africa’s biggest economy.

  • Nigeria’s economy resilient despite hard reforms –Report

    Cape Economic Research and Consulting, an economic think-tank group, has projected that Nigeria’s economic outlook for the third quarter of 2023 maintains its resilience, albeit with a moderated tone, driven by substantial policy reforms.

    In its Economic Newsletter for August, which was shared with NIGERIAN ANCHOR on Saturday, the think-tank emphasized that the effects of subsidy removal and the recent exchange rate policy adjustment are gradually permeating the economy, resulting in elevated inflationary pressures and anticipated dampening of aggregate demand.

    The report underscores the lasting impact of subsidy removal and exchange rate unification until households and businesses fully adapt to the new economic landscape. The implementation of essential support measures is anticipated to bolster the economy’s resilience. Consequently, the report predicts that output growth will remain positive during the third quarter of 2023.

    CAPE observed that the heightened cost of production, fueled by significant increases in input costs, including wages, has led to a slowdown in production.

    As the government prepares to roll out relief measures to mitigate the repercussions of recent policies on the economically disadvantaged, aggregate demand and output are projected to respond favorably.

    The report anticipates a further increase in inflation for August 2023. Projections indicate that headline food and core inflation could rise to 23.51%, 26.41%, and 21.34% respectively.

    The main drivers of this forecast are food prices, exchange rates, and short-term assets, contributing 5.94%, 1.96%, and 0.44% respectively.

    CAPE also highlights the macroeconomic implications of persistent negative interest rates, including low savings and investment, the emergence of parallel markets with higher interest rates, inefficient resource allocation, and suboptimal investment efficiency.

    Additionally, these rates constrain the government’s capacity to raise resources through bond issuance.

    The newsletter sheds light on the tightening stance adopted by numerous central banks in both advanced and emerging economies throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023.

    While this approach has led to price moderation in some economies, core inflation remains relatively persistent. However, these measures have brought about output moderation and financial stability, accompanied by an elevated risk of potential financial crises.