Author: admin

November 2025

As Nigeria prepares to inaugurate a new Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa, recently pulled from his position as Chief of Defence Staff, the appointment highlights a familiar pattern: leadership reshuffles and reconfigurations of the security architecture that have so far failed to address the nation’s deepening insecurity.

Despite record defence budgets and years of military operations, Nigeria’s war against insurgency, terrorism, and violent crime remains far from won. Behind the official rhetoric of “decisive action” and “renewed hope,” the figures tell a sobering story: the country is spending more on security than ever before, yet becoming less safe.

Between May 2023 and April 2024, at least 614,937 Nigerians were reported killed in violence linked to insecurity, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics and independent research groups. Amnesty International estimates that more than 10,000 people were killed in the northern states alone during that period. Villages have been razed, farmers displaced, and highways turned into hunting grounds for kidnappers.

For 2025, the Federal Government earmarked ₦6.57 trillion for defence and security, nearly equivalent to the combined budgets of education, health, and agriculture. Yet insecurity persists. From Boko Haram’s remnants in the northeast to bandits in the northwest and separatist militias in the southeast, violence has become a permanent feature of daily life.

Nigeria’s insecurity cannot be solved by military might alone. “Nigeria’s security crisis is systemic, not merely operational,” a recent Counter-Insurgency and Anti-Terrorism Plan notes. “You can suppress conflict with soldiers, but you cannot kill an idea, or desperation, with bullets.” The country’s challenges go beyond insurgents and bandits; they are rooted in economic inequality, governance failures, and social exclusion, problems that no army, no matter how well-funded, can solve.

The Price of Peace Without Justice

Decades of economic inequality, corruption, and exclusion lie at the heart of the crisis. Wealth and resources are concentrated in the hands of a few, leaving large portions of the population marginalized. Communities excluded from decision-making or denied access to the country’s resources often turn to violence as a form of protest.

Other forces exacerbate the problem: mass illiteracy, youth unemployment, religious manipulation, and climate-induced displacement. Across northern Nigeria, desertification has swallowed farmland, forcing herders southward and triggering deadly clashes with farmers. In the mineral-rich central states, illegal mining networks, sometimes backed by foreign interests, have transformed into armed militias.

The insecurity is not merely a question of security operations; it reflects a broader governance failure, where political neglect, corruption, and impunity have created fertile ground for violence to thrive. Without addressing these structural issues, any attempt to suppress insurgency with force alone will remain temporary.

Spending More, Achieving Less

Nigeria’s defence spending has ballooned over the past four years: ₦966 billion in 2021, ₦1.2 trillion in 2022, ₦1.38 trillion in 2023, and now ₦6.57 trillion in 2025. Yet insecurity has worsened. World Bank data shows that the country’s military expenditure has risen faster than that of many African peers, without a corresponding reduction in violence.

Bigger budgets have meant more equipment, more contracts, and more commissions, but not necessarily more safety. Observers note that the country continues to fight the same war with the same tactics, expecting different results. High-profile military campaigns have occasionally neutralized specific threats, but the absence of complementary development and governance reforms has allowed insecurity to regenerate.

A New Strategy for a Broken Nation

Recognizing that force alone cannot deliver security, the counter-insurgency plan advocates a multi-dimensional approach that blends immediate security measures with long-term social, economic, and governance reforms. It is founded on the principle that lasting peace requires both containment of violence and addressing the root causes of unrest.

A central feature of the plan is the proposed Geopolitical Security and Development Summit. This high-level forum would bring together the Presidency, service chiefs, and state governors to coordinate priorities, share intelligence, and integrate human capital development into security planning. By aligning national and sub-national efforts, the summit aims to create a cooperative framework in which security operations respond to local realities rather than operating in isolation.

Education, rural empowerment, and healthcare are reimagined as tools of national defence rather than afterthoughts. By addressing poverty, unemployment, and social exclusion, the plan seeks to reduce the vulnerabilities that violent actors exploit. Economic opportunities, skill development, and access to services strengthen communities, making them less susceptible to recruitment by insurgents, bandits, or criminal networks.

Complementing this is a Stakeholders’ Summit involving religious leaders, traditional rulers, youth organizations, and civic groups. The forum is intended to promote interfaith dialogue, encourage conflict resolution at the community level, and empower citizens to take part in building peace. By fostering trust between communities and the state, the summit aims to prevent minor disputes from escalating into large-scale violence.

The plan emphasizes a shift in mindset: security is not just the absence of attacks but the presence of justice, opportunity, and inclusion. “Peace cannot be sustained through force alone,” it stresses. “It must be built on trust, understanding, and shared values.” Military interventions may suppress violence temporarily, but without addressing structural weaknesses, the gains remain fragile.

Reforming the Fault Lines

Several structural reforms are prioritized in the plan. Modernizing animal husbandry is one key step, including regulated ranching and strict enforcement of anti-open-grazing laws, paired with economic support for pastoralists to prevent marginalization.

Illegal mining, now a major source of funding for armed networks, is another critical target. The plan calls for a nationwide crackdown, formalizing artisanal mining into regulated cooperatives while reclaiming illegal mining corridors with security support.

Central to all reforms is restoring the rule of law. Impunity has become a pervasive issue in Nigeria, where political influence often shields offenders. The failure to prosecute crime erodes public trust and perpetuates violence. “A nation that does not punish crime inevitably rewards impunity,” the plan notes, emphasizing accountability as a cornerstone of sustainable security.

From Force to Fairness

At its core, the strategy envisions a paradigm shift in how Nigeria approaches security. True national security is not measured solely by military victories or the neutralization of threats; it is reflected in the ability of citizens to live without fear, access opportunity, and trust their government.

Political instability compounds insecurity. A culture of “do-or-die” elections fuels tension, undermines institutions, and perpetuates violence. Ensuring credible, peaceful elections is essential for creating a foundation on which sustainable security can be built.

The fight against terror and insurgency, the plan argues, will not be won solely in forests or creeks but in classrooms, farms, and courtrooms, where education, justice, and economic opportunity can finally triumph over despair.

“The time has come for Nigeria to prove that it can not only defend its territory but also heal its society,” the plan concludes.

Dahiru Ali: Journalist, academic, writes on governance, national security, and development policy. He is passionate about evidence-based reform and inclusive approaches to peacebuilding in Nigeria.