Administration after administration, the Nigerian state has failed in its most basic responsibility: guaranteeing the safety and security of its citizens. Ordinary Nigerians live in perpetual fear, often petrified to leave their homes after dawn. Let’s accept this as the backdrop before the usual critics start targeting the messenger.
As the 2027 presidential election approaches, citizens must brace for a surge of terror-driven political propaganda. Expect real attacks, fabricated incidents, recycled videos, AI-generated scenes of carnage, kidnappings, and orchestrated chaos, strategically pushed into our WhatsApp groups and social media feeds.
Violence is not new in Nigerian elections. From the First Republic to the “Wet e” era, political contests have often been marred by bloodshed. But the playbook has evolved—and worsened. The 2015 election between Jonathan and Buhari, and the 2023 contest among Obi, Atiku, and Tinubu, revealed how fear can be weaponized.
The stakes in 2027 are higher than ever, and ordinary Nigerians will bear the brunt. Expect spikes in terror attacks and gruesome content engineered to manipulate emotions. Social media will be awash with shocking videos, some real, many doctored, others entirely fictional but frighteningly convincing. Politicians will exploit these to control public perception and electoral outcomes.
Why does this work? Fear hijacks the human brain. Dopamine surges at shocking images, just as bloodthirsty crowds once roared in the Roman Colosseum. Bad news spreads faster than truth because it hooks emotions and triggers compulsive sharing. Fear and terror remain the most potent tools in the political power game, and those who seek control understand this perfectly.
We must resist. We must not allow manufactured, exaggerated, or even real terror to manipulate our choices. We must tame our fingers before hitting “share.” Panic is a political strategy, and we are the targets.
Social media algorithms—designed by what I call the true “evil geniuses,” exploit our emotional vulnerabilities. They monetize fear, incentivize outrage, and erode social and moral values. AI-generated fake news will only get harder to distinguish from reality. But intentionality, verification, and discipline can save us.
The fight is not just against political actors but against a system that thrives on fear, chaos, and manipulation. We must educate ourselves, question sensational content, and prioritize truth over virality.
As Nigerians, resisting the weaponization of fear is not optional—it is necessary for the survival of our democracy and the integrity of our electoral process.
May God save us from what lies ahead.
Adewale Alonge, PhD, Founder & President, Africa Diaspora Partnership for Empowerment and Development. www.adped.org, writes in from Dadeland, Miami, Florida, USA.
“What happened between the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, and Navy Lieutenant A.M. Yerima is unfortunate. When Wike arrived at the site of the disputed land in Abuja, the officer explained that he was simply obeying lawful orders. Wike should not have exchanged words with the officer; he ought to have addressed his concerns through the officer’s superiors. He is our colleague, and he could have reached out to us to resolve whatever issue there was.
“The officer’s action was lawful—he was trained to be disciplined, loyal, and obedient to orders. Therefore, the young officer merely carried out his duty, which is worthy of commendation. He did not commit any offence under military regulations. If you observe carefully, he spoke respectfully and conducted himself properly.
FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike in near fisticuff with an officer of the Nigerian Navy
“There is, therefore, no offence under military law for which he should be charged. Wike should not have engaged him in an altercation, especially out of respect for the uniform he was wearing. Anyone who disrespects a soldier indirectly disrespects the President, who is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. There is, therefore, no basis for any punishment against the officer. This is not about supporting the military to act disrespectfully towards civilians. The Minister should understand that every officer has superiors.
“I gathered that he called the Chief of Defence Staff, who advised him to wait for an investigation. However, he did not wait and instead went straight to the site. As a leader, he ought to have exercised patience and waited for the outcome of the investigation. Wike also contacted the Chief of Naval Staff, who assured him that an inquiry would be conducted. Yet again, he did not wait. It was supposed to be a one-day inquiry, but he chose to go there and confront them. Now that the Chief of Naval Staff has visited the area—since it involves a land dispute—the matter will be investigated to determine who owns the lawful documents. If the land has been revoked, there are established procedures to follow diplomatically.
“We [the Ministry of Defence] have not received any formal complaint from Wike, but I called him after the video went viral and advised that he should have spoken with me before going there, rather than confronting the officers directly.”
A Matter Effectively Closed
I have chosen to reproduce the words of Alhaji Bello Matawalle, the Minister of State for Defence, because of what they represent. Although he mentioned the need for further investigation, the tone and tenor of his statement suggest that the matter is effectively closed—and the naval officer has nothing to worry about. Lt. Yerima, by every indication, acquitted himself well. He was professional and measured in his conduct during that very public confrontation with a “super minister” known for his loquacity.
To reinforce the sense that the matter is closed, one only needs to recall the words of the Minister of Defence, Alhaji Mohammed Badaru, who stated that his ministry and the armed forces “will always protect our officers on lawful duty.” Badaru added: “We will not allow anything to happen to him so far as he is doing his job, and he is doing his job greatly well.” The defence minister made this statement during a ministerial briefing for the 2026 Armed Forces Remembrance Day in Abuja. Let that sink in.
You may call it esprit de corps, but several retired generals from both the North and the South—including former Chiefs of Defence Staff and Army Staff, Generals Lucky Irabor and Tukur Buratai—have spoken in Yerima’s defence. They even called for a public apology from Wike to both Yerima and the Commander-in-Chief, President Bola Tinubu, for dishonouring a military officer commissioned by the President himself.
Lawyers, Silence, and Political Optics
Notable voices have weighed in on the Wike–Yerima confrontation over the disputed plot of land in Abuja last Tuesday. Some are lawyers—senior and junior—while others are political commentators and public intellectuals. A few have argued in favour of Wike, citing the 1999 Constitution (as amended), but the majority have faulted him, emphasizing due process, the rule of law, and the impropriety of resorting to self-help, as appeared to be the case here.
As usual, the legal community has been divided—lawyers seldom agree on anything, even when the law seems straightforward to the “unlearned.” For most of the past week, they have been doing what they do best: lawyering. Their disputations may be intellectually stimulating, but one must not take them too seriously. Often, their arguments are shaped by convenient partisanship masquerading as constitutional fidelity.
By the way, has anyone noticed the deafening silence from Wike’s colleagues in the Federal Executive Council? Nearly fifty cabinet members, yet not one has publicly spoken in his defence. Does this silence reflect how they truly regard the Minister? As for President Tinubu, who appointed Wike “on our behalf,” the Minister may well be beyond reproach or removal—for obvious political reasons.
The Politics of 2023 and the Future of 2027
Wike appears untouchable—because of the past (2023) and the future (2027). President Tinubu, ever the political strategist, prioritizes electoral victory by any means necessary—the Machiavellian creed that the end justifies the means. And Wike fits perfectly into that school of thought.
Tinubu “discovered” Wike in 2023, when the latter was nearing the end of his governorship of oil-rich Rivers State. Having fallen out with his own party, the PDP, Wike was eager to prove his relevance. Tinubu needed a foothold in the Niger Delta and, by extension, the national electoral map. In that year’s presidential election, Wike reportedly “delivered” Rivers State to Tinubu—an opposition candidate—in defiance of his own party’s standard-bearer, Atiku Abubakar.
An APC governor from the North, astonished by Wike’s performance, allegedly remarked that his party merely begged for 25 percent of the votes but received an overwhelming—and inexplicable—victory. Unsurprisingly, the PDP still won the subsequent governorship election by a landslide, demonstrating the complex web of political transactions that define Nigerian elections.
In essence, Wike paid with the votes of Rivers people for his current position in a supposedly opposition-led federal government. That, in part, explains his “untouchable” aura. He remains a crucial asset for the 2027 elections—and the President knows it.
The Rivers Factor and a Trail of Conflict
Wike has long been a person of concern throughout his political career—from his days as Chairman of Obio/Akpor Local Government Area, to Minister, to Governor, and now to FCT Minister. Since assuming office in August 2023, controversies have dogged both his official and personal conduct.
He installed Siminalayi Fubara as his successor in Rivers State but soon fell out with him. Earlier this year, he was linked to political violence that led to a temporary declaration of emergency in the state, suspension of all elected officials—including the governor and lawmakers—by President Tinubu. The crux of the matter was political control. Wike openly claimed he nominated all elected officials, purchased their nomination forms, and installed them in office. The implication: Rivers State belongs to him.
A chastened Fubara has since been reinstated under conditions widely reported to include a promise not to defect to the APC as its leader and to forgo a second-term bid.
Throughout his political journey, Wike has sparred with nearly everyone who once aided his rise—from former President Goodluck Jonathan and his wife, Patience, to his predecessor, Rotimi Amaechi. His rift with Atiku Abubakar and the PDP leadership over the 2023 presidential ticket further cemented his image as a combative political loner.
On Saturday, he and his loyalists were reportedly expelled from the PDP—a move he predictably dismissed with scorn. Wike is, as the Igbo say, an ikiri—a tenacious creature that never lets go once it bites. But the real casualty may be the PDP itself, now adrift and internally fractured.
A court ruling against holding the party’s Ibadan convention underscores how the PDP’s legal and political machinery remains compromised. In Abuja, many judges are whispered to be “Wike’s judges,” highlighting his alleged influence over the judiciary.
Money, Power, and the Capital Territory
Wike’s public persona is equally polarizing. His frequent, combative media chats—lavishly funded from the FCT’s coffers—have become theatrical displays of arrogance. Barely two months after his appointment, he reportedly secured presidential approval to exempt the FCT from the Treasury Single Account (TSA) policy, giving him free rein over the territory’s internally generated revenue—beyond public scrutiny.
Allegations have since swirled around him: the revocation and reallocation of prime land to cronies and family members, misuse of public resources (including taking his children on official foreign trips), and failure to fully declare assets, notably properties in the United States allegedly registered in his wife’s and children’s names. He has also been accused of using public venues for partisan political events, including hosting a factional PDP meeting at the FCDA conference hall. Wike, for his part, has strenuously denied all allegations of wrongdoing.
A Dangerous Moment for Civil–Military Relations
The Wike–Yerima spat, however, carries deeper implications—especially against the backdrop of an alleged coup plot reportedly involving northern military officers. Although the government insists the arrests were disciplinary, many Nigerians remain skeptical.
The vehement defence of Lt. Yerima by northern political figures, including the Defence Ministers, raises its own concerns. And then came the cryptic post from the Nigerian Defence Headquarters’ X (formerly Twitter) account, in bold uppercase letters:
“IT IS AN HONOUR TO SERVE IN THE NIGERIAN MILITARY. UNSHAKEN. UNBENT. UNBROKEN.”
Make of that what you will.
Meanwhile, the National Assembly is reportedly considering legislation to make the military answerable not only to the President but to all tiers of civilian authority.
In a manner of speaking, may Wike not become Nigeria’s Achilles’ heel in this fragile and fractious democracy of twenty-six years.
About the Author
Ugo Onuoha is a veteran journalist, former Managing Director/Editor-in-Chief, Champion Newspapers Ltd, columnist, and public affairs analyst. His works often explore governance, power dynamics, and civic accountability in Nigeria’s evolving democracy. He writes from Lagos.
Donald Trump’s warning to President Tinubu over alleged genocide against Christians has reopened Nigeria’s deepest wounds — exposing again the country’s uneasy balance between faith, power, and politics.
A Red Herring in the Nigerian Tragedy
Red herring. That is the one phrase that best captures the flurry of debates following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to “deal with” those he accused of waging a genocidal war on Christians in Nigeria.
Trump’s statement was stark: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must act decisively against sectarian Islamist terrorists seeking to Islamise the country — or face dire consequences. His warning, dramatic as it sounded, reignited a familiar national anxiety.
The Nigerian government, characteristically, has swung between denial and reluctant acknowledgment. Officials first dismissed talk of genocide as exaggerated propaganda; then, in the next breath, admitted that while killings exist, they are not state-sanctioned.
The Denial Industry
Some Muslim groups and clerics have been especially vocal in rejecting the label of “genocide,” particularly regarding violence in the Middle Belt. But their rebuttals struggle against visible reality.
“We live in a global village; the world sees everything,” the author notes.
In the age of smartphones, satellites, and citizen journalism, atrocities cannot easily be buried. The world watches Nigeria — just as Nigerians watch the world. Even North Korea, despite its iron censorship, has not fully silenced global scrutiny.
Governments everywhere understand that information is power. Nations spy on allies and enemies alike. The 2010 WikiLeaks scandal merely confirmed what the powerful already knew: diplomacy is as much about gathering intelligence as exchanging pleasantries.
From Lagos cocktail receptions to cultural events like the Argungu Fishing Festival or Ojude Oba, Nigeria is never beyond the gaze of foreign observers. Agents arrive disguised as tourists. The truth always finds its way out.
So when it comes to the question of whether genocide against Nigerian Christians exists, the argument itself has become redundant. The evidence is in plain sight.
Before the Beginning: Seeds of Division
Nigeria’s religious fault line is not new — it was inscribed into the country’s DNA long before independence.
In 1957, Sir Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto, famously declared:
“We the people of the North will continue our stated intention to conquer the South and dip the Qur’an in the Atlantic Ocean after the British leave our shores.”
Twelve days after independence in 1960, Bello told The Parrot newspaper:
“Nigeria should be an estate of our great grandfather Uthman Dan Fodio… We must use the minorities in the North as willing tools and the South as a conquered territory.”
Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Nigeria’s first Prime Minister, echoed that sentiment as early as 1947:
“If the British quit Nigeria now, the Northern people will continue their uninterrupted conquest to the sea.”
More than sixty years later, not one major northern political figure has publicly renounced these views.
Christians in Power — or So It Seemed
Some argue that Christian presidents like Olusegun Obasanjo (1999–2007) and Goodluck Jonathan (2010–2015) disproved the claim of Islamic domination. But events during their administrations tell a different story.
Under Obasanjo, nearly all northern states (except parts of the Middle Belt) adopted Shari’a law, creating parallel legal systems and semi-autonomous religious jurisdictions. Under Jonathan, the backlash from northern elites was ferocious. His presidency was haunted by conspiracy and ultimately drowned by a wave of coordinated opposition — much of it driven by religious sentiment.
Now, some of those same northern actors are courting Jonathan again, hoping to exploit his credibility to patch the cracks left by Tinubu’s struggling Muslim–Muslim ticket.
Trump’s Threat and Nigeria’s Reality
Was Trump properly briefed before making his threat? Perhaps not. Yet his blunt accusation touches on an uncomfortable truth: Nigeria, for all intents and purposes, already behaves like an Islamic state.
The Constitution says otherwise, but the system tells a different story. Nigeria operates two codes of law — Criminal in the South and Penal in the North — reflecting deep-rooted ideological divides.
More revealing, however, is what the 1999 Constitution itself contains. Analysts like Pastor Femi Emmanuel and U.S.-based researcher Dr. Josephine O. Soboyejo have shown how heavily it leans toward Islam.
“Shari’a Law was never enacted into the Constitution — it was inserted,” Soboyejo asserts. “It appears 73 times. Islam, 28 times. Muslim, 10 times. Grand Khadi, 54 times. The Constitution contains no mention of Christ, Christianity, or Church.”
She calls this “a dual ideology” — one that gives lip service to secularism while institutionalising religious imbalance.
A Fragile Secular Dream
Nigeria’s so-called secular state is built on contradictions. Section 38 guarantees freedom of religion, but Section 6 embeds Shari’a jurisdiction, creating a legal paradox that has become “calamitous for Christians,” as Soboyejo puts it.
This reality is not academic. It plays out in blood and fear across the Middle Belt and Northern Nigeria.
In 2019, CNN honoured Imam Abubakar Abdullahi of Plateau State, who risked his life to shelter 262 Christians in his mosque during an attack by Muslim herdsmen. His bravery made global headlines — but his story underscored the perilous truth: those who defend Christians often do so at the edge of death.
From Gideon Akaluka to Deborah Yakubu, countless Nigerians have been lynched for alleged blasphemy. Their killers remain free, unpunished, and emboldened.
“It will finally be game over,” the writer warns, “when radical Islam fully captures the Yoruba nation — a process already underway.”
The stakes could not be higher. With the Yoruba population split almost evenly between Christians and Muslims, the struggle for Nigeria’s soul may yet end where it began — in the collision between faith and power.
Final Word
Donald Trump’s bombastic threat may be another red herring, but it has dragged into daylight a truth Nigerians prefer to whisper about: the slow erasure of secularism and the steady march toward a theocratic state.
The question now is not whether the world is watching — it is whether Nigerians are awake enough to see what their country is becoming.
About the Author: Ugo Onuoha is a veteran journalist, former MD/E-in-C, Champion Newspapers Ltd, columnist, and public affairs commentator. His writings explore politics, religion, and governance in Nigeria and Africa with an unflinching eye for truth and justice.
EXCEPT for the “Omoluabi”, every Yoruba person at home, and in the diaspora, should fiercely support the regime of Nigeria’s president, Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu. So far, he is doing well for them, especially his Yoruba “boys” from Lagos, many of whom actually are not indigenes of the state. Anyway, Tinubu himself is also said not to be an indigene of Lagos. The inevitable question then will be: why the attempt to exclude some Yoruba from being part of the permanent choristers for Tinubu for the perceived good things he is doing for the Yoruba nation? We will explain.
Meanwhile I could have asked any of my many Yoruba friends for the meaning of “Omoluabi”, the group that I excluded from chanting the incantation “On your mandate” Tinubu personal anthem that could in time supplant the old/new national anthem. I deliberately refused to, but instead opted to consult Meta AI. And it described it thus: “Yoruba ‘Omoluabi’ is a concept that refers to a person of good character, someone who embodies traditional Yoruba values such as respect, honesty, and integrity. It’s about being a good human being, showing empathy, kindness, and strong moral principles”. It went further to explain that “in Yoruba culture, an Omoluabi is highly respected and admired for their virtues and behaviour”. This concept, I believe, also exists in other nations that make up our country. It can be compared to ‘ubuntu’.
In recent times, and for as long as it lasted, some members of Afenifere, a Yoruba socio-cultural group, which was led by Chief Ayo Adebanjo approximated the virtues of Omoluabi, two of which are sensitivity to fairness and equity. In the run up to the presidential election in 2023, the group stoutly advocated for equity in the consideration for access to power at the topmost level for a critical section it believed had been left out of the power loop for too long. And according to the Adebanjo group that section was not its own Yoruba nation. For that faction of the Afenifere, it did not matter that a Yoruba personage was canvassing and had been adopted as the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress [APC] political party. It adopted and endorsed Peter Obi, an Igbo who was running on the ticket of the opposition Labour Party [LP].
It took courage, though not unusual, to take such a stand in the politics of Yoruba land. But it spoke to the stuff Adebanjo and those who stuck with him in spite of the dangers were made of. Like elsewhere, partisan politics in the south west region can be vicious, deadly, and bloody. But Pa Adebanjo, a renowned nationalist, elder statesman, and lawyer was unfazed by the potential consequences of the position that he took. He had known danger, having played significant roles in Nigeria’s political evolution from colonial time. A lawyer, Adebanjo had served as the organising secretary of the Action Group, one of the leading political parties in the First Republic dominated by the Yoruba. Before he died last February 14 at 96, he had told Nigerians that he would not be around when they would face the consequences of their political choice. How prescient he had been.
Tinubu has been in office for a little over two years. Or 30 months to be precise. And it was obvious from Day One on May 29, 2023, that his rulership will be consequential for the country. First, he removed petrol subsidy, a policy he had vehemently preached against as an opposition politician. Then he devalued the Naira in a precipitous manner. He imposed taxes on everything ahead of setting up a committee to review and reform Nigeria’s tax laws. The new tax laws are ready and will come into effect from January 1, 2026, about two months hence. The new tax laws can be likened to an elephant in the midst of blind people. Each person describes it from the feel of the part the person touches. But as the elephant is heavy and massive, so will be the burden of new taxes on Nigerians. Even ahead of the implementation of the new tax laws,
Tinubu has approved the implementation of a 15% tax on imported petroleum products. He said the tax was to protect local refiners of petroleum products. Nigerians say that the tax will worsen the already biting cost of living crisis because a litre of petrol will shoot above N1,000. Nigeria’s informal economy estimated at above 60% depends on petrol for its lubrication. The formal economy is largely driven by diesel fuel. That explains why Nigeria is derisively described as a generator economy. So whatever happens in the petroleum products sector has rippling effects on Nigerians. The other day, a notable critic of this regime said Nigerians should brace up for a tax by Tinubu on the oxygen they inhale. He said that the president, said to be an accountant, is so ignorant that he believes that he can use taxation to to bring the country to the path of sustainable development.
What should be clear and obvious in this dispensation of Tinubu in the years since his advent, and in the remainder of his tenure is that his policies, programmes, and actions have been tailored to reimagine Nigeria in his own image, to his personal advantage, to the benefits of his cronies and acolytes, to empower his Yoruba of Lagos, and to the advantage of the Yoruba nation. It used to be that many Nigerians were singing from the same hymn book with Tinubu on the restructuring of this country while he was the governor of Lagos state, and then opposition politician. But the restructuring vision and form we once shared with the man, and the other self-styled ‘progressives’ got lost in the shuffle immediately our progressive comrades assumed office at the centre in 2015.
The irony: the face of the ‘progressives’ at the time was one Muhammadu Buhari, an arch-convervative, sectarian, Fulani Muslim irredentist. Of course, and as expected, Buhari promptly disclaimed the party’s [APC] manifesto promising political and economic restructuring of the country. But he pretended to come back to the issue of restructuring ahead of his reelection campaign in 2019. He set up a committee headed by the then governor of Kaduna state, Nasir el-Rufai, to revisit the matter. It was a ruse. Immediately he ‘won’ reelection, the matter died a natural death. The Rufai Report had served its purpose as a vote catcher especially in the southern parts of Nigeria.
Buhari scoffed restructuring. Tinubu is redefining and aggressively implementing his own version. Almost every nation within Nigeria is aware of Tinubu’s peculiar and self-serving restructuring even if they appear helpless in challenging him. But the present political leadership of the Igbo nation which suffers from an acute myopia does not realise it because they are like “ndi nzuzu na ndi iberibe na amaghi mgbe ekechara nku ukwa”.
Tinubu is actively empowering the Yoruba nation to hit the ground running when the inevitable proper restructuring of the country happens or when Nigeria folds under the weight of its many contradictions. Anybody who believes that what obtains currently will be sustainable is being delusional, and living in a fool’s paradise. There’s so much that any president of this country can do to help Nigeria turn the corner, but certainly not the one with a baggage as Tinubu’s. Any other president who is sold to servant leadership could mend Nigeria to an extent but only by the force of a moral personal example. And there are not many today in the cadre of those now jostling for the office of the presidency.
Now let’s take a glimpse into the future of Nigeria and how Tinubu is positioning the Yoruba for dominance. As much as we can we will try to sidestep the issue of appointments into critical and sensitive top government positions across board because the matter has been overflogged. Tinubu’s supporters have failed miserably in their attempts to gaslight Nigerians with counter arguments about the overwhelming dominance of the Yoruba and associated Yoruba in leadership in key positions in the military, para-military, maritime, financial, and other sectors. The faces and mannerisms of those who speak the same or similar language, dress and behave the same way may not be a sufficient measure to accuse Tinubu of a barely hidden agenda. For an irrefutable evidence of Tinubu’s designs, ignore the appointments and follow the flow of the money from the central purse to the geopolitical zones. The regime is adept at obfuscation. They would rather we follow the physical counts of the projects allocated to each of the six zones. To do that will be to fall into their trap. At an engagement last July, the Arewa Consultative Forum, a northern pressure group, ignored the project counts and followed the money to accuse the Tinubu regime of sleigh-of-hand in resource allocations.
The ACF chairman, Alhaji Bashir Dalhatu, cited figures from the federal ministry of works of May 2025 to highlight the disparities in federal allocations for road projects alone. He claimed, for instance, that the figures showed that the south west was allocated N1.394 trillion; south east, N205 billion; north west, N105 billion; and north east, N30 billion. Dalhatu also alleged that Lagos and parts of the south west got the lion’s share of a $21.5 billion loan request with projects in the south west including the Lagos Green Line, Western Super Grid, Lagos – Calabar coastal highway, and Lekki Access Roads, getting eye-popping allocations. The ACF did not cite figures for the south south and north central subregions.
The proposed hundreds of billions of Naira investments in the Lagos airport and the Lagos seaports at Tin Can Island and Apapa fall into the same category of a Tinubu agenda for the Yoruba nation in a future Nigeria which will not resemble what we have now. That future could also include ‘to your tents o’ nations of the erstwhile Nigeria. But we will digress from the huge investments in the entry ports to expand on how the Investments in the Lagos – Calabar and the Sokoto – Badagry highways are essentially structured to benefit the south west. The two highways will separately or jointly pass through each of the states in the south west except Osun. The federal government said the highways will, among other benefits, stimulate economic activities, ensure free movement of persons, as well as goods and services. In other words, all the states in the south west region are potential beneficiaries except Osun. Since the cost of the Lagos – Calabar road is indeterminate, President Tinubu as a Father Christmas, could still order that a spur be added to link Osun state to the largesse. It has been reported that he has directed that Edo state be linked to the road. It’s also our understanding that the same gesture had been extended to Ebonyi, the home state of David Nweze Umahi, the minister of works.
The Lagos airport involves an upgrade costing a staggering N712.3 billion. The same airport was renovated with billions of Naira in 2022, on the eve of Buhari’s departure from office as president. The contract will see to the overhaul of Terminal 1, expansion of terminal 2, and the construction of a new apron and access roads. The investment is happening at a time that many of the geopolitical zones do not have any international airport worth its name. Perhaps, the most brazen yet of the Tinubu agenda is the recently announced plan to invest $1 billion in Lagos seaports. When the regime was called out for the concentration of investments in the seaports in Lagos to the neglect of other ports in other parts of the country, it suddenly remembered that those other ports will also benefit from the $1 billion. But the regime still dug in even after being reminded of the social, security, economic, and political implications of putting all of Nigeria’s eggs in one basket. It closed its ears to salient arguments in favour of developing the seaports in Onne, Rivers state, Koko in Delta state, and Calabar in Cross River state. Or even building a brand new port in Imo state, in the heart of Igbo land. Of course, that should be a taboo because a section of Igbo youngsters are clamouring for self determination for the region. For successive rulers of our country, it is of no consequence that a sizeable population of users of the ports everywhere in this country are the Igbo.
Here is my take on President Trump’s recent bombastic threat of military action against Nigeria — supposedly to stop alleged targeted killings of Christians, a narrative that is largely unsubstantiated.
There is little doubt that Trump, from intelligence briefings, knows the claim that Nigeria is complicit or inactive in these killings is false. So why is he spreading it and using it to justify military threats?
For any foreign-policy analyst, the pattern is familiar. When facing domestic political crises, Trump’s playbook is to create or amplify external crises to distract and confuse. With a paralyzed U.S. government, tanking poll numbers, and mounting legal pressures, he is overwhelmed. A foreign-policy provocation aimed at Nigeria — especially one framed to appeal to the religious-right wing of his base — serves his domestic political objectives.
Trump’s foreign policy is erratic, incoherent, and often driven by immediate domestic political calculations. Many within the U.S. State Department and national-security apparatus learn of major policy shifts only after seeing his social media posts, with little prior consultation or deliberation.
Nigeria has now found itself in the eye of Trump’s foreign-policy hurricane. Dealing with it is like having a wasp land on one’s scrotum: ignoring it risks an excruciatingly painful bite, while overreacting risks collateral damage. One thing that gets under Trump’s skin is being ignored. Yet, dealing with this effectively requires strategic calm — the sort of tactical ignoring and discreet consultation exemplified by China’s Xi Jinping. President Tinubu would do well to adopt a similar approach.
If Tinubu rushes to Washington to perform public obeisance, he risks a humiliating scene — a “Zelensky-style” dressing down staged for global cameras. The correct response is measured diplomacy, careful consultation, and a focus on protecting Nigeria’s sovereignty and interests.
There is precedent.
In December 2020, Trump designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern” (CPC), a designation reversed under Secretary of State Antony Blinken in 2021. Aside from timing, little is new in this round of bombastic declarations. Trump’s posture is meant to bolster his domestic credibility, distract from U.S. political crises, and highlight U.S. discomfort with Nigeria’s emerging role in Africa and its increasing engagement with China and other partners. At the same time, a small but vocal cottage industry of Nigerian actors benefits from amplifying the narrative of state-sanctioned attacks on Christians.
Domestic political undertones are also present. The controversy over Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket remains exploitable as Nigeria prepares for the 2027 presidential elections. External claims of religious persecution can be repackaged and used as leverage in internal political contests.
Bottom line
Tinubu must handle this “crisis” with calm, deep contemplation, and strategic subtlety — not with reactive gestures driven by social media hype. The Trump “wasp” has landed on Nigeria’s scrotum; it requires careful, skillful handling to prevent pain and collateral damage. High-profile displays of subservience or panic will only serve Trump’s domestic political interests. Quiet diplomacy, joint fact-finding, and engagement through ECOWAS and the African Union remain the best tools to defend Nigeria’s dignity and national interest.
Adewale Alonge, PhD, Founder & President, Africa Diaspora Partnership for Empowerment and Development. www.adped.org, writes in from Dadeland, Miami, Florida, USA.
“So by Kanu or through Kanu the Igbo nation over time has become a wasteland of sorts. The violent enforcement of sit-at-home orders by the IPOB since 2017 has devastated every sector of the south east – businesses, investments, education, governance, among others. Bloodletting which used to be an abomination among Ndigbo has become commonplace. There had even been stories of cannibalism among the Igbo “efulefu” or renegades.”
To many Nigerians including some Igbo, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu is the devil’s incarnate. He probably is. But not so fast. To some other Nigerians, he is the major problem of this country. Currently. To the Igbo who are outside the cult of Kanu, the putative leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra [IPOB], he is the sole reason for the loss of their loved ones, the ruination of their businesses in the south east, the pervasive insecurity in the Igbo nation, and the despoliation of a once peaceful and thriving region. Kanu, and Kanu alone is the reason why the Igbo, arguably the most populous indigenous nation in Nigeria, have been cut adrift from the mainstream of Nigeria’s national politics since after the cameo appearance of the former Nigerian vice president [1979-1983], the late Dr. Alex Ifeanyichukwu Ekwueme, an architect and a lawyer.
Everything evil afflicting Ala Igbo, and to some extent Nigeria, since the emergence of Kanu on the scene as an agitator and the inspiration of a separatist or self determination movement for the Igbo under the umbrella of Biafra have been laid at his feet. And this is perhaps rightly so. However, not many of us will readily admit that before the advent of the menace of Kanu, there was a disconnect in Igbo land between leaders and followers. There was a palpable leadership vacuum. And as they say, nature abhors vacuum. There was a misalignment between the interests of the Igbo leadership and the aspirations of the younger generation. Nnamdi Kanu who in reality was not the founder of IPOB moved in to fill the vacuum. He seized the organisation and then deployed Radio Biafra to push his megalomaniac agenda of attempting to become the Supreme Leader of the Igbo, a people who are otherwise urbane, sophisticated, discerning and republican. He deployed his oratorical prowess and prescience of mind to sway the gullible and the simple-minded. Some uninformed people believed that his worshippers were only young people. No. They cut across a wide spectrum of the Igbo – young, old, literate, semi-literate, university teachers, students, artisans, and diasporans. Just name it.
The majority of Kanu’s apostles verily believed that the declaration of the new republic of Biafra was imminent. Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu had declared a Republic of Biafra in 1967 which became defunct in 1970. Kanu’s grossly uninformed followers kept boasting about the countries and world powers that had already recognised the emergent phantom nation, including the prospective issuance of a proclamation by the United Nations [UN] birthing Biafra sooner than the skeptics could imagine. In a real, though misguided sense, there was a revolution of rising expectations amongst his supporters, and freedom for Biafrans from the suffocating Nigeria which was derogatively referred to as a zoo. So whatever Kanu said to the maddening crowd was the gospel truth. It was not unusual then to see charlatans and some otherwise respectable and knowledgeable persons fawning and prostrating flat on the ground to greet Kanu in public places. And he reveled in the obsequious idiocy. A full blown cult was formed. Many Igbo dared not criticise or even advise the Supreme Leader. He had a short fuse for those who held contrary views about the charade called a liberation struggle. Even speaking in whispers against the Leader was a dangerous pastime and venture because Kanu had eyes and ears in many communities in the south east. Every dissenter became circumspect while speaking even in small gatherings in Igbo land. The reach of Kanu and his henchmen was frighteningly pervasive. And the fear of speaking against the man was the beginning of wisdom. You could be killed or maimed at the minimum. You could lose family members and livelihoods. In short, there was no safe place.
From that point the so-called agitation to found the new Biafra could only go one way- down the hill and down a slippery slope. Kanu created or better still promoted an inchoate organisation he was incapable of managing because, ab initio, he was incapable of managing himself. He mistook delusion for success. He strutted around with swagger and an unrivalled air of self-importance. He became disdainful of everybody. He thought himself above reproach. He became the legendary or the proverbial “eze onye agwalam” of Ala Igbo. He was abusive to everybody, with justification in some cases. He travelled in and out of Nigeria believing that his dual nationality [he was also British] will provide a sufficient cover or immunity for him. Apparently, Kanu was convinced that Britain, the West and the world would be in his corner and on the side of Biafra if anything untoward happened to him or his struggle. He may be a smart youngster but he was a novice on realpolitik. Every country’s involvement or intervention in external situations are primarily driven by national interests not emotions. For many countries, a bird in hand [Nigeria] is worth more than a thousand birds [Biafra] in the sky.
So by Kanu or through Kanu the Igbo nation over time has become a wasteland of sorts. The violent enforcement of sit-at-home orders by the IPOB since 2017 has devastated every sector of the south east – businesses, investments, education, governance, among others. Bloodletting which used to be an abomination among Ndigbo has become commonplace. There had even been stories of cannibalism among the Igbo “efulefu” or renegades. “Aru mere”. At the peak of the insecurity and up till now, some Igbo rituals including traditional marriages were consummated in strange lands. That was the extent of the damage to the psyche of a proud people. If the truth must be told many of the Igbo people residing outside the homeland have been IDPs [internally displaced persons], though they are not captured in the official government statistics. Some have not visited home in the past five years or more. Others from the diaspora make Lagos, Port Harcourt, Asaba or some other places their bases. And from those places they make sorties to their villages. They dash in and dash out before news would filter out that they were around. That had been part of the tragedy of the Igbo for almost one decade.
However, it is convenient though dubious to make Kanu the scape goat. But if the truth must be told it will be wrong to heap all the blame or the woes of the south east on Kanu. In the beginning IPOB was not a violent self determination movement. Apart from the leadership cadre IPOB was composed of youngsters in the south east who organised rallies and peaceful protests in that region armed with the flag and insignias of the defunct Republic of Biafra. They operated for many years that way until the advent of Nigeria’s affliction, the late Muhammadu Buhari, to the presidency in 2015. He had an abiding disdain which bordered on hatred for the Igbo. He spoke derogatively of the Igbo nation throughout his eight wasted years of ‘non-governance’. Indeed, he set Nigeria back by 30 years at the minimum. And it was he, Buhari, who incited and stoked violence in the south east. His unleashing of the military on unarmed protesting youths in Igbo land, and the atrocities they committed through their so-called Operations Python Dance and Crocodile Smile were well documented by local and global human rights organisations, including Amnesty International. There were videos of soldiers shooting fleeing pro-Biafra youths in the back and killing them all over the east. There were footages of security agents indiscriminately arresting Igbo youths and subjecting them to humiliation and unimaginable torture, often resulting in gruesome deaths.
Sadly, Kanu and his ragtag and brainless group allowed themselves to be goaded into the cycle of violence and bloodletting. He established the Eastern Security Network [ESN] to, according to their idiotic tale, ward off the invasion of Igbo land by the marauding and gun totting Fulani herdsmen. Videos of their armed but rag-tag ‘soldiers’ were caused to go viral on social media. Ideally, no sovereign tolerates a challenge to its jurisdiction. So the full weight of the armed forces and mercenaries from a private military company owned by Dokubo Asari was visited on the east. The mercenaries infiltrated remote communities in the Igbo heartland, recruited and armed locals who left sorrow and blood in their trail. Dokubo confirmed this much in one of his recent media interviews. It has to be stated for clarity that the impression given about the Nigerian sovereign not tolerating any challenge to its powers only obtains in the south, and particularly in the south east. The sovereignty of Nigeria has been severally challenged in parts of the north without consequences. Terrorists, bandits and kidnappers are still occupying Nigerian territories in parts of the north, setting up administrative structures, and levying taxes on indigenes and residents. Ironically governments are negotiating with the terrorists under the guise of a non-kinetic approach to fighting insurgency. Terrorists come to these negotiations with governments armed with military grade weapons. And they pose for pictures with the government negotiators who cut the image of zombies. As we write this such a negotiation might be ongoing somewhere in Katsina or Zamfara. What a weird spectacle?
The foregoing notwithstanding, Nnamdi Kanu deserves to be made to pay for the turmoil in Ala Igbo. He is directly or vicariously responsible, no matter how his sympathisers would want to spin it. However, the current court process against him in Abuja is a trial by ordeal. Persecution not prosecution. Kanu’s abduction in a foreign land said to be Kenya, and his extraordinary rendition to Nigeria offended all known municipal laws and international treaties. A fact finding team of rapporteurs of the United Nations has since declared that Kanu’s abduction and trial was illegal. It said that Kanu was a prisoner of conscience, and so should be released. ECOWAS court was reported to have made a similar finding. Even the Abuja division of Nigeria’s Court of Appeal ruled in 2022 that the manner of the abduction and return of Kanu to Nigeria had stripped all the law courts in the land of jurisdiction. But the Supreme Court has a contrary view that appears to be untethered to any laws or precedence. Kanu’s prosecution or persecution was expected to begin to fully unravel by yesterday (Monday, Oct. 27). He has disengaged his attorneys and elected to defend himself. He has listed high profile serving and former government officials, and some foreigners as his witnesses. Some see his move as foolish. A no-brainer. Probably, they are right. But one thing is sure: Kanu will not play on the turf and by the rules of the prosecution and the courts. He won’t allow himself to be drawn into legal niceties or allow himself to be constrained by lawyering. Kanu may have reckoned that the Nigerian state with its compromised judiciary is determined to get him, to break him, and to possibly kill him. So he will fight as dirty as he can muster and use every tool at his disposal to expose the ugly underbelly of the hideous Nigerian state and its rogue judiciary. Nigeria instead of Kanu could be on the dock. This trial promises to be a spectacle. But it could also end in an anti-climax. Nothing is impossible In Nigeria, the self-styled but delusional, giant of Africa.
Ugo Onuoha, Veteran Journalist, was the Managing Director/Editor-in-Chief, Champion Newspapers Limited.
LATEEF Fagbemi is Nigeria’s attorney-general and minister of justice. He has been at the job since August 2023. He is a senior advocate, the equivalent of a King’s [formerly Queen’s] Counsel in the United Kingdom. He might have been a brilliant lawyer but his lawyering skills became more pronounced with his dexterity over election matters. My understanding is that he has had quite a few victories in high profile electoral disputes. And the crowning prize of his nose for winning election disputes was in 2023 when he led a team of other senior lawyers and a motley of nondescript attorneys to persuade the Supreme Court to rubber stamp the award of the presidency of Nigeria by the ‘Independent’ National Electoral Commission [INEC] to Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It should be obvious that that win was what contributed in recommending him for the job of the top law officer of this country. We know that winning legal victories in court on election matters are often not strictly based on laws. Many of our judges are known to be corrupt. The additional qualification of Fagbemi was that he is Yoruba. In our country, being controversial comes with the job of being attorney-general and minister of justice. You are not expected to be at the service of Nigerians. You are the lickspittle of the president who appointed you. To be fair, Fagbemi is not alone. He is in the same boat as his predecessors.
In some jurisdictions the attorney-general and the minister of justice are too separate individuals – the minister can be a partisan hack while the attorney-general is not. In our country, some advocates have been campaigning to separate the two offices. But the advocacies had been half-hearted at best. Even as recent as last year, there was a bill introduced in the House of Representatives by opposition lawmakers of the Peoples Democratic Party [PDP] to separate the ministry of justice and the office of the attorney-general. The bill introduced by Mansur Soro [Darazo/Ganjuwa federal constituency in Bauchi state), and Oluwole Oke of Osun state, was then said to be receiving ‘legislative input from the House Committee on Constitution Review chaired the Deputy Speaker, Benjamin Kalu’. The bill was designed to alter section 150 of the 1999 Constitution with the introduction of sub-section 1 to read’:
“There shall be an Attorney-General of the Federation who shall be the Chief Law Officer of the Federation different from the person occupying the position of the Minister of Justice to be appointed by the President subject to the confirmation of the Senate”. In the same bill a sub-section to section 195 of the Constitution was proposed. The new sub-section should read, “There shall be an Attorney-General for each state who shall be the Chief Law Officer of the state to be appointed by the Governor, subject to the confirmation of the Governor”. Two things are possible with this bill. One, the bill is still alive awaiting the consummation of the alteration of the Constitution which has remained a work in progress since 2023, or that the bill fell by the way side. Two, the proponents had abandoned the bill in the wake of mass defections to the ruling All Progressives Congress [APC] by governors and lawmakers nationwide. The PDP is so decapitated that it is possible that the sponsors of the bill had jumped ship. And as a member of the ruling party you cannot be seen to be backing a bill that will offend the deity inside the Rock who is the owner of the party and the parliament. That will be the day. A similar move to separate the offices failed at the last hurdle in 2017 when the alteration couldn’t muster the concurrence of two-third of the 36 state assemblies.
So Fagbemi, as the attorney-general and minister of justice, and as an apparatchik of the APC, has been working his socks off for the president, the APC, and Nigerians in that order. By the virtue of his office, he is the chief legal adviser to the president. When you work for Tinubu, especially as it pertains to politics, independence of mind is not a virtue that’s encouraged. You are better served if you can correctly read his mind and proceed to do such things that he has in mind. And so far Fagbemi appears to be good at it. Between Tinubu and Fagbemi, they have the Supreme [Cult] Court for its imprimatur as the need arises. That informed the approach to the Supreme Court by the duo to make the combined 774 local government areas as a federating unit in Nigeria along with the federal and state governments. Their lame argument was that the Constitution prescribed that the Councils should be financially autonomous, and so should receive their allocations directly from Abuja. Tinubu and Fagbemi conveniently ignored another constitutional provision which stipulated that the states shall superintendent the operations and activities of the local government areas within their jurisdictions. The duo expectedly extracted victory from the pliant justices of the Supreme Court. But for all intents and purposes, it appears so far to be a pyrrhic victory. State governors had continued to use Council allocations as slush funds. The easier and better thing to do would have been to delete the council areas from the Constitution, allow states to create as many local governments or whatever name they choose to call them, and administer and fund them.
As part of duty as the chief legal adviser to Tinubu, Fagbemi is complicit in the constitutional aberration in the suspension and removal from office for six months of the elected governor, deputy governor, and lawmakers of the Rivers state House of Assembly. And the appointment of an obviously illegal Sole Administrator. A court in Abuja only ruled on technicalities after the fact of the suspension. The main suit challenging what has been variously described as an abuse of power by the president is still languishing in the dockets of one of the courts in the federal capital. This could only happen because like the national assembly, the judiciary is now being widely regarded as a parastatal of the presidency. In like manner the same attorney-general recommended the seizure of the financial allocations to the council areas of Rivers state in the wake of a controversial council election conducted under the governor before he was sacked. But Fagbemi supported the release of the same funds to unelected councils under the Sole Administrator, and in contravention of a Supreme Court judgment that unelected councils should not receive any funds from the federal purse. Fagbemi was also behind the stalemate in Osun state where he has sided with the APC claimants to councils’ chairmanship positions against the PDP. There was a report recently that the PDP governor of Osun state, along with his wealthy songster nephew, had been paying the local government workers from their personal finances. This is not how to run a country or its subnational.
The latest scandal is that this same attorney-general and minister of justice is currently reviewing a proclamation already publicly issued by the president on clemency and pardons for categories of detainees and prisoners who included merchants of psychotropic drugs and murderers. The review of the proclamation of a presidential order suggests that the buck does not stop at Tinubu’s desk any longer. And that the input prior to the pardons, if any, of the National Council of State comprising former presidents, heads of state, former and current heads of the three arms of government, governors, and other selected personages was of no consequence. What this tardiness, lack of vigour and rigour exposes is that governance is a charade in our clime. And especially in this dispensation. Members of sensitive and critical councils or committees or commissions lend themselves to be used as rubber stamps in decision-making including those involving life and death. They are herded into the Aso Rock Chamber without being armed in advance with briefing folders to acquaint themselves with the details of the issues they are expected to deliberate on and endorse. How is this possible with personages who should ordinarily be regarded as protectors of the realm? Should Fagbemi still be regarded as a fit and proper person for the exalted office he occupies?
In some other places, and we verily believe that the same applies here, nobody has the authority or power to vary a clemency or pardon which has already been publicly granted by the president especially when that favour has passed through recognised persons and agencies of state. The office of the attorney-general is setting a dangerous precedent by purporting to be working to potentially vary a presidential decree. The likely argument that the pardons had not been gazetted and that the beneficiaries had not been freed from prison is neither here nor there. If the regime in the course of the ongoing review advances salient reasons why some of the beneficiaries of the pardon should be unpardoned, it will only confirm the widely held views that our rulers are neither thorough nor serious on matters concerning the wellbeing of Nigerians. In addition, anyone who had been pardoned and then unpardoned, and who can muster the courage may approach the courts to challenge the flipflop. The person could make a number of claims including discrimination and emotional trauma. The only drawback will be that the people who pardoned and unpardoned also own the courts and the judges.
Apart from suggestions that this controversial clemency and pardons which have enraged a cross section of Nigerians were tailored to favour kindred spirits, there’s a greater concern that they will be disincentives to those who work tirelessly to ensure that the rule of law prevails. When drug traffickers and merchants are whimsically pardoned, you kill the zeal of the diligent officers of the Nigerian Drug Law Enforcement Agency [NDLEA] and similar institutions. A corollary to this is that you embolden those who are minded to get into the illicit and deadly business. We also create more drug addicts who will become a menace to society and a burden to our health facilities. Those who are responsible for the administration of justice may not be motivated to do more, seeing how their efforts can be undone by a casual and careless stroke of an apparently presidential auto pen. No matter how this ends, the country will be worse for it.
PUBLIC intellectual and a commentator on national issues, Dr. Nnaemeka Obiaraeri, recently reportedly said that members of Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria [PENGASSEN] and Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas WORKERS [NUPENG], two key unions of oil workers in Nigeria consume about N120 billion in salaries, allowances, and wages every year. The two unions in various incarnations have been the dominant players in Nigeria’s oil industry for about 60 years, and especially since the commissioning of our first refinery in 1965 in Alesa, Eleme, near Port Harcourt, in Rivers state. This refinery, a joint venture between Shell and British Petroleum, was then known as Nigerian Petroleum Refining Corporation [NPRC]. It was initially built to process crude oil into products like gasoline and diesel. It had the capacity to process 38,000 barrels of crude oil per day. About 24 years later, in 1989, another refinery was founded by the federal government close to the first plant, the so-called second Port Harcourt refinery. Two more refineries were subsequently established by the government, one in Warri in today’s Delta state, and the other in Kaduna, Kaduna state. In theory, the four refineries have a combined capacity of 450,000 barrels.
Dangote Refinery and Petro-chemical Company
These four government – owned refineries were all that were of note that operated here until the ‘commissioning’ of the Dangote Refinery and Petrol-Chemical Company in 2023, long before it was completed. In reality, the refinery came on stream in January last year with the production of diesel and aviation fuel. The production of petrol followed eight months later, one year ago last month. At its commissioning, and up till now, the Dangote refinery is the largest single-train refinery in the world. But with its current capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, it is ranked as the seventh largest refinery globally. India’s Jamnagar Refinery sits atop the pile worldwide with an output capacity of 1.24 million barrels per day. We will return to the travails of the Dangote refinery shortly.
In 2007, in the twilight of the administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo [1999-2007], Blue Star, a consortium led by the business man, Aliko Dangote, had bidded and and won majority shares in two of the four government-owned refineries in Port Harcourt and Warri. There was disquiet in the land with allegations of underhanded dealings and specious, self-serving arguments about national energy security. So when the successor administration of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua took office that same year, it revoked the sale and refunded the Dangote consortium about $700million. It has to be said that before the consortium moved in, the refineries were at best epileptic in their operations, and at worst moribund. In fact, to all intents and purposes they were dead. They had become bottomless pits and a cesspool for the corrupt and unscrupulous government officials and their outside collaborators.
The unions, PENGASSEN and NUPENG, and their fatcat leaders orchestrated the protests and strikes against the partial sale of the two refineries. The unions were not alone. There was a cabal in the background of those who import petroleum products into the country on behalf of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation [NNPC]. The deal was that they bring in the products and then make a claim on the government including payments for subsidies. It was a racket that bordered on daylight robbery. Many of the authorised persons and companies brought in zero petroleum products, and yet claimed humongous subsidy payments. There were cases of forged shipping documents and discharge of millions of phantom metric tons of petroleum products in ghost tank farms in Lagos, and elsewhere. And the ghost importers got payments. The racketeering was widespread, corrosive, and deadly. It stretched from individuals to corporations, to government agencies, to the ports, to the national legislature, and the presidency. It was a bazaar. The greater tragedy was that unsuspecting Nigerians were used as fodders to oppose the partial government divestment from the moribund refineries.
For as long as it lasted, and it has not really ended, the four government refineries presented a story of the near hopelessness of this country. Some persons were employed in each of the refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna and retired in the same after 35 years or on attaining 60 years of age without doing any meaningful work, without really earning their pay. And in-between their employment and retirement, they attended trainings at home and abroad; were promoted as and when due; got pay raise; received hefty allowance; collaborated and connived with the petroleum products import cabal to fleece the country; and, then went home with hefty gratuities and pensions. To crown it all many of such people were not, ab initio, qualified for the jobs for which they were employed. They were beneficiaries of nepotism in recruitment into high-paying government agencies and parastatals such as the refineries, NNPCL, central bank, NIMASA, among others. If, according to Dr. Obiaraeri, about N120billion is expended annually on salaries, wages, and allowances of members of PENGASSEN and NUPENG, then it will be safe to assume that about N250bn was being used as overhead for the personnel of the moribund refineries. And if the refineries have not worked effectively and efficiently for about 30 years, and they indeed have not, it means that this country has been pouring N250bn on average down the drain every year for 30 years. Or N7,500,000,000,000 [N7.5trillion]. In which sane country does this happen, and be allowed to linger for about one generation?
Between $15-20bn may have been expended on repairing and recovering the moribund refineries in the last 30 years, to no avail. Of course, much of the money may have been stolen. It was not unusual to read bizarre stories about the stewardship of some leaders of the NNPC, owners and operators of the refineries. About $9million was once found in a steel cabinet in a nondescript house in Kaduna of one of NNPC’s former group managing directors. He claimed it was a gift, and if my recollections are correct, the courts sided with him. He went away scot free. The immediate past group chief executive officer of the corporation, as they are now called, was recently quizzed by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission [EFCC] ostensibly over allegations of fraud in the repairs of the refineries. He denied any wrong-doing and has been moving about freely. Not much is being heard about the probe. Sooner than later, the investigations will grow cold. As we say here in local parlance: the probe will ‘enter voicemail’. In one-third of the years we have allegedly spent about $20bn in repairing refineries that have literally produced zero petroleum products, Aliko Dangote, had built a refinery that dwarfed the combined capacity of the four government refineries. The cost of the ultra-modern Dangote refinery is about $20bn. The irony should not be lost on us.
Another cruel irony was the report in the news media a few weeks back which said that the staff of the moribund refineries were threatening to embark on a strike action because of delayed payment of their salaries and allowances. For real? From people who have enjoyed no work for full hefty pay for about 30 years. The strike threat was coming from people whose predecessors were employed and retired from the refineries without doing any genuine work even for one day. From staff who are still likely to retire from the moribund refineries this year and in subsequent years without doing any worthwhile work because the refineries are not producing, and are not likely to produce in the near future. The new CEO of the NNPCL, Bayo Ojulari, said on assumption of office that the refineries would be sold. But he has since changed his mind. ‘Repairing’ the refineries is a veritable channel for slush funds. And the 2027 elections are around the corner. The decision to keep pouring money into the bottomless pits is in spite of the assertion by a man who should know, Dangote, that the refineries may never work again, at least, not optimally.
Warri Refinery
The death of our refineries is not a stand-alone story. It came with other implicit costs. The resources used to train professionals including engineers were at a loss to the Nigerian state. Some have gone to their graves with skills that never benefitted the country. Others have moved on to other refineries or related corporations or to private and personal endeavours. This will be looking at the big picture. There are other smaller but devastating and crushing losses. When you aggregate these so-called smaller losses in Nigeria’s economy which is about 70% informal, they would amount to so much. We will retell a story told by a national newspaper in the course of investigating the moribund refineries last month. “This place [Kaduna refinery] used to be alive. You would see flames from the furnace, hear the noise of work going on. Now, nothing. They kept saying ‘maintenance’ but we have heard the same story for years with no end in sight”, said Paulina, a bar attendant in Kapam, a community bordering the refinery. Aisha Mohammed was another resident. She reportedly said, “Even if the refinery starts operation at 60%, that will be good. Last time, they promised similar targets, we saw flames, then silence. We are tired of promises”. The closure of one refinery translates to the closures of tens or even hundreds of small scale businesses and services providers operating in the vicinity. Jobs and livelihoods suffer. Families become poorer. Out of school children increase. Young girls drift into prostitution. Idle youngsters become drug users. Crime spikes. Security agencies are stretched. Sadly, our rulers do not, or they willfully refuse to see the big picture. And we suffer.
ASUU is Different
On the reverse side, we are about to experience yet another strike by the academic staff union of public universities in Nigeria (ASUU). The extant regime and its predecessors have neglected to implement agreements reached with the lecturers since 2009 or thereabouts. In fact, this administration recently denied the existence of the 2009 agreement. And then quickly recanted. But unlike the refinery workers, the government will soon announce the policy of ‘no work no pay’. And then proceed to implement it. The regime did so not too long ago. The quick resort to no work no pay’ as it concerns university teachers speaks to the store our rulers set on education. That’s why our country is where it is – a bad place.
UGO ONUOHA, Veteran Journalist, was the Managing Director/Editor-in-Chief, Champion Newspapers Limited
MANY issues have been playing out in Lagos state between the government and residents, especially with those of Igbo extraction. There appears to be no love lost. It has been a cat and mouse relationship since after the February 2023 presidential election in which Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi [an Igbo], defeated a ‘son of the soil’ Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress [APC] political party. The defeat of the Jagaban, who was a governor of the state between 1999 and 2007, was deemed an insult, an assault, and a sacrilege. It came as a shock of ‘tsunamic’ proportion because Tinubu, now president of Nigeria, was regarded as the builder and owner of Lagos, a claim that is blatantly untrue. He was regarded as a wily politician and a political strategist like no other. For once he was outed as a giant with clay feet.
Since after his governorship, nobody became anything in the state at least, politically without his express approval, anointing, and support. And this includes each and everyone of his successors since 2007. You cannot even aspire to become a local government councillor unless you belong to the camp of ‘Baba sope’. Any beneficiary of Tinubu’s approval who allowed themselves to be suspected of disloyalty or harboured anything short of absolute fealty to the ruler was frozen out, and sent to the Siberia of Lagos. If in doubt, ask the one term governor of the state, Akinwumi Ambode. That the indigenes and residents of Lagos thought he did a good job in his first term was of no consequence. His performance did not guarantee him a second term. He was ousted at the party primary level. It now appears that his rehabilitation is on the horizon after six years and counting of being in the cold. Tinubu is the only governor of the ‘Class of 1999’ in Nigeria who allegedly successfully privatised a state, stork and barrel, for about two decades and counting. So the result of the 2023 presidential election was an aberration and a shock. The political bookmakers did not reckon with that outcome in their widest imagination. It was claimed that the margin of his loss in the informal and unannounced vote tally was staggering. And a huge price must be extracted from any persons or group suspected to have a hand in that humiliating defeat.
Some of the demolished properties belonging to Igbo Business people at the FG-owned Lagos Trade Fair Complex
The Igbo of Lagos were not just merely suspected of voting to defeat the owner of Lagos. Without evidence they were quickly branded as the original sinners, and as harbouring designs to seize the governorship of the state from the indigenes, the economic heartbeat of the Yoruba nation. So, the reprisal was swift and scorching. No Igbo in the state would be allowed to vote in the March 2023 governorship poll unless the enforcers headed by a rich [wealth extracted through extortion and violence], illiterate motor park lout were fully convinced that the Igbo voter would cast their ballot in favour of the ruling party [APC] candidate, Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Videos from some enforcers including that from the popular or notorious motor park henchman in Lagos made the rounds. They warned Igbo voters not to come near the precincts of the voting stations unless they committed to voting for the ruling party candidate, and to show evidence that they did so. It was immaterial that it was unlawful to show who you voted for. Many were restrained from casting their ballots in that election including some Yoruba persons and non-Igbo residents of the state. Their crime: they were judged to resemble Igbo. Those who resisted the enforcers and insisted on voting were viciously attacked, bloodied and left for dead. M.C Oluomo who was the head of the enforcers of no voting for the Igbo of Lagos enjoyed, still enjoys, police escorts. And official protection. His godfather now lives in the Rock.
The police said Oluomo’s threat to the Igbo was a joke and completely harmless. He followed up the get out of jail template with a choreographed video which showed that his jocular banters with ‘Iya Shukudi’ [Yoruba for Igbo’s Chukwudi’s mother], his alleged long time friend and neighbour, was misconstrued as a threat to the Igbo voters in Lagos. But nobody was fooled. Oluomo has since relocated to Abuja to head the national body of road transport workers union, about the same time that Tinubu assumed the presidency, also in Abuja. Oluomo’s relocation and promotion could be a reward for a job well done. Another person who was alleged to play a role in the fall of Tinubu in Lagos in 2023 was his party man and the governor of the state, Sanwo-Olu. It took time to ‘unmask’ his role though there was no supporting evidence placed in the public domain. In ‘Baba sope’s’ camp mere suspicion is enough evidence. The governor was hounded and publicly humiliated. He was ridiculed and castrated. Obviously, with backing from a higher authority, the speaker of the Lagos state house of assembly was empowered to demean and disgrace the governor. He was reportedly at the brink of impeachment. His alleged manoeuvre to remove the speaker was bursted. Indeed, the governor was forced to swallow his own vomit. Respite came when he managed to find sympathizers who agreed to accompany him to Abuja to pay obeisance to their god. Even the allegations of his using a female socialite, whose birthday party he was said to have sneaked out of state to attend in one exotic island in a far-flung part of the world, to launder money has gone cold.
The deity that they worship does not stop demanding for blood sacrifices. That probably explains the governor’s overzealousness in doing-in the Igbo to satisfy his master. And one certain way to get at the Igbo is to destroy their businesses and threaten their livelihoods. In this regard the Lagos state government under Sanwo-Olu appears to be in overdrive. And demolitions of properties owned by the Igbo, and the closures of markets where they are dominant players on flimsy excuses, have become routine avenues for retributions. It will be wrong and uncharitable to claim that the state government ignores its rules and laws in every and all enforcements. No. The point is that the state government now seems disposed, determined, and eager in using a sledgehammer for even minor physical development or sanitary infractions that could otherwise be resolved through dialogues and negotiations. This appears to be the situation with the recent Trade Fair demolitions of fully built up market plazas and complexes by the enforcement team of the physical development agency.
Any one who watched the Lagos state commissioner for physical planning on national television struggling and stuttering to justify and rationalise the demolitions in the Trade Fair complex would readily realise that the state’s action was not unimpeachable. It was difficult for any neutral person, [which I may not be given the sound and feel of my name], to believe that the enforcement was driven exclusively by legalities or illegalities. But I am persuaded that the demolitions were propelled by sentiments far beyond the Lagos state government, and a section of the Yoruba deep resentment of the Igbo. Envy and pervasive fear of the Igbo also play a part. But the main reason could be Sanwo-Olu working hard to return fully to the good graces of his god in Abuja by crippling the economy of the Igbo ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Was it a coincidence that the demolitions happened at the same time that the successor of MC Oluomo, one Sego, declared with what sounEchoes of ‘Iya Shukudi’ in Trade Fair demolitionsded like oracular finality that Lagos state and APC are one and the same. And that anybody who nursed the idea of not voting for Tinubu, and for APC up and down the ballot in 2027, should know that they are dead men walking. Sego was reported to have been invited by the secret police [self-styled directorate of state services for questioning. But he ended up with a slap on the wrist. So it’s actually all about hate, fear, envy, and 2027. The Igbo are like the phoenix. And haters will have to contend with that.
UGO ONUOHA, Veteran Journalist, was the Managing Director/Editor-in-Chief, Champion Newspapers Limited
Executive Summary This paper critically examines the viral video of empty shelves in a ShopRite outlet in Abuja, which has been used to portray the Tinubu administration as a failure. While the imagery is powerful, it is also misleading. The reality is more complex: Nigeria is undergoing painful but necessary structural reforms. The removal of subsidies and the floating of the naira are painful adjustments that have reduced purchasing power in the short term, but they are essential for long-term economic stability. The ShopRite example highlights not only the immediate consumer pain but also the structural shifts in Nigeria’s retail market. Foreign chains that relied on subsidized imports are struggling, while local retailers with lean supply chains are thriving. The empty shelves therefore reflect business model weaknesses, not a national collapse. Early signs of recovery are visible: prices are stabilizing in local markets, indigenous retailers are expanding, and investors are returning. Manufacturing hubs are growing in some states, though regional disparities remain. Osun State, for example, has not yet embraced industrial transformation, unlike Ogun. The key lesson is that Nigeria is restructuring, not collapsing. Consumer welfare improvements will lag behind macroeconomic gains, but those who focus only on pessimistic narratives risk missing the opportunities of tomorrow. Nigeria remains a high-risk, high-return economy—where timing is everything.
Introduction
A recent video showing empty shelves at a ShopRite outlet in Abuja has gone viral, fueling political narratives about the failure of the Tinubu administration. While the imagery is striking, a critical analysis reveals that such interpretations are simplistic and misleading. To understand the reality, we must situate the event within Nigeria’s current economic reforms, market dynamics, and the ongoing structural transition of the consumer sector.
Macroeconomic Context: From Coma to Recovery
The Nigerian economy inherited by the Tinubu administration was, by every measure, in a state of near collapse. To use a medical analogy, it resembled a patient in intensive care, requiring painful but necessary interventions to prevent imminent death. The removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira—two of the administration’s most significant reforms—are comparable to chemotherapy: painful, disruptive, and producing visible side effects, but ultimately essential to restoring long-term health. Unsurprisingly, Nigerians—particularly the middle class—have experienced a sharp decline in purchasing power. Just as a patient undergoing chemotherapy loses weight and hair, households are enduring a period of painful adjustment as the economy recalibrates.
Retail Market Dynamics: ShopRite vs. Local Competitors
ShopRite’s struggles, dramatized in the viral video, are not merely the result of national economic decline. Rather, they highlight the competitive pressures in Nigeria’s retail sector. Large foreign-owned chains like ShopRite, which previously relied on subsidized foreign exchange to stock imported goods, now find themselves disadvantaged. By contrast, indigenous retailers such as FoodCo, with leaner operations and localized supply chains, are thriving. Their agility and narrow focus enable them to adapt quickly to shifting economic conditions. In consumer markets, as in nature, the aging lion often loses its pride to younger and more nimble challengers.
Empty ShopRite Shelves, Ikeja Mall, Lagos
Media Narratives and Political Spin
It is important to interrogate the motives behind viral media content. The ShopRite store shown in the video bears the hallmarks of a “going out of business” outlet: empty shelves, no staff, and no customers. It is less evidence of national collapse than of a particular company’s strategic failure. To present this as a proxy for Nigeria’s overall economic trajectory is intellectually dishonest and politically motivated.
Early Signs of Recovery
Despite the pain of adjustment, evidence suggests that Nigeria is slowly turning a corner. Prices in local markets such as Bodija are beginning to ease. Indigenous retailers are expanding, with FoodCo opening new outlets and reporting brisk business. Along the Lagos–Ibadan expressway, new manufacturing warehouses are springing up, signaling renewed investor interest. The return of global investors—previously deterred by currency volatility and profit repatriation challenges—underscores that reforms are beginning to restore confidence in Nigeria’s business environment.
Regional Economic Disparity
One worrying dimension, however, is the uneven pace of regional economic transformation. While Ogun State is positioning itself as a manufacturing hub, other Yoruba states, notably Osun, remain overly dependent on the public sector. Without deliberate policies to foster industrial growth, such states risk falling behind in Nigeria’s new economic order. Beyond the concern our our economy, the country faces a more existential threat to its future. Our youths all across the country, but especially in the Yoruba urban centers are getting hooked on “paraga,” addictive alcohol delivered in fancy colourful sachets and other hallucinogens. We are losing our youths and our future to drugs and no one seems to be concerned about or doing something about it
Lessons from the Past and Future Outlook
It is worth recalling that the Jonathan administration benefited from a mini oil boom, yet much of that windfall was squandered on subsidies and currency manipulation. By contrast, today’s reforms aim to address structural weaknesses, even if they impose short-term costs on households. As economic theory and experience both show, improvements in consumer welfare often lag behind macroeconomic indicators. Investors who wait for the “feel-good” factor to materialize may miss the window of opportunity. It is like buying an IPO after it has peaked and the early investors have harvested the early bird payoff. In five years Nigerians, especially those in the diaspora who has their stations permanently tuned to the doomsayer will find out too late that the cost of entry into the Nigerian economy has become too prohibitive. Nigeria remains a high-risk, high-return environment, where timing is everything.
Conclusion The viral ShopRite video is less an indictment of Nigeria’s economy than a case study in corporate mismanagement amid structural reforms. While suffering is undeniable and challenges remain, the trajectory is one of painful but necessary adjustment. For investors and policymakers alike, the lesson is clear: Nigeria is not collapsing—its economy is restructuring. Those who focus only on the bearers of bad news risk missing the opportunities of tomorrow.
Adewale Alonge, PhD, Founder & President, Africa Diaspora Partnership for Empowerment and Development. www.adped.org, writes in from Dadeland, Miami, Florida, USA.
